In other words, our analysis illustrates where the remaining recoverable resources of each country stood at the beginning of this year. This estimate is dynamic and subject to change based on ongoing exploration, technological progress, and shifts in global energy policies and consumption patterns. The timestamp of Rystad Energy’s newest resource assessment is 1 January 2023. Years of proven reserves remaining for each OPEC producing country based on its production and exports.
As the world moves away from oil as an energy source, thanks to the shift to electric vehicles, according to BP’s 2023 Energy Outlook Report, demand will likely plateau. In October 2023, for instance, the International Energy Agency said it expects oil use to have peaked by 2030, declining after that. Globally, around 1.6 trillion barrels of recoverable oil remain, according to a 2023 survey by Rystad Energy. There’s also recoverable oil we haven’t yet discovered; that’s a hazier number, although in 2012, the U.S.
The Future of Oil Production
Rystad Energy also reports proven oil reserves at 449 billion barrels, according to recognized standards. This provides a lower limit for remaining oil reserves if no new development projects were to be approved and all exploration activities were stopped. This is a significant upward revision since 2023 driven by increased onshore infill drilling in Saudi Arabia. The world’s remaining oil reserves are insufficient to support oil demand if there is no transition to electric vehicles. Attempts to limit the supply of oil will have hardly any effect on limiting global warming. Instead, the only feasible way of keeping global temperatures rising less than 2.0 degrees Celsius is to ensure fast electrification of road transportation.
Although 1,624 billion barrels of oil are technically recoverable, fewer than 1,300 billion barrels are likely to be economically viable before 2100 at an average Brent price of $50 per barrel. The potential longevity of proven reserves varies widely among OPEC and non-OPEC producers, ranging from fewer than five years for the UK to more than 20 years for Canada. Collective action at the individual level can have a significant impact on reducing global oil demand. Several emerging technologies hold promise for increasing the amount of recoverable oil in the future.
- Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline.
- The overall curve predicts that global production will rise, peak and then fall off.
- These data are used to estimate the amount of oil in place (original oil in place, or OOIP) and the percentage that can be recovered (recovery factor).
- In this case there appears to be differences both in the definition of “oil” and the definition of “proven”.
- This Report presents detailed forecasts and analysis of oil demand fundamentals across fuels, sectors and regions as well as the supply outlook from planned upstream and downstream projects around the world.
I assume we drill to different depths depending on if the oil field is big enough to be worth it. But are there much deeper volumes of crude oil that are not counted in the apparent 1.37 trillion barrels of oil left before we “run out”? A quick Google search shows the deepest layers are 20,000 ft and we’ve drilled to 40,000 ft. Currently the way I see it the quoted amount of “oil left” is what oil companies have prospective or current access to. Considering price of oil Vs cost of getting it, when it decreases in quantity it will increase in value so more money to invest into drilling deeper.
Beyond Conventional Oil: Unconventional Resources
Proven reserves are estimated with reasonable certainty to be recoverable under existing economic and operating conditions. Unproven reserves are estimated to exist but haven’t been thoroughly verified for economic recovery. At the same time, we now have a much better understanding of the impact burning fossil fuels has on climate change.
How Much Oil Do We Have Left on Earth?
In this theoretical “high case,” total oil production would peak around 2035 at 120 million barrels per day (bpd), then decline steeply to 85 million bpd in 2050. The widely cited figure of around 47 years is derived by dividing the total proven global oil reserves by the current annual global oil consumption. For example, the world’s proven reserves are currently equivalent to about 46.6 times its annual consumption levels. Saudi Arabia unsurprisingly leads the way in total recoverable oil with 271 billion barrels. The US follows with 192 billion barrels, Russia with 143 billion barrels and Canada with 127 billion barrels.
Oil Reserves in Venezuela
This represents gas production adjusted for trade (so, gas exports are subtracted and imports are added). This has been converted into primary energy equivalents (i.e., terawatt-hours of energy) for comparability across our other data on energy. This interactive chart shows primary energy consumption from oil across the world.
Why Estimates Vary
Latin American countries fared quite well compared to other regions, with Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Guyana and Venezuela all staying relatively flat or growing marginally. Rystad Energy is an independent energy research and business intelligence company providing data, tools, analytics and consultancy services to the global energy industry. Our products and services cover energy fundamentals and the global and regional upstream, oilfield services and renewable energy industries, tailored to analysts, managers and executives alike. One key driver of waning oil demand is the surge in electric vehicle (EV) sales. We estimate EV sales will continue to accelerate and pass 50% of global car sales by 2030, leading to peak oil demand of 105 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2026 before tapering at above 100 million bpd until 2032. Usted está aquí »Portada » Intl » Editorial English Content » When will world oil reserves run out?
Beyond conventional oil deposits, vast quantities of unconventional resources exist, including oil sands and shale oil. The relentless rise in global oil supply briefly reversed course in October, falling by 440 kb/d m-o-m to 108.2 mb/d, as a raft of planned field maintenance and unscheduled outages curbed output. Nevertheless, total output was a massive 6.2 mb/d above January, albeit the low point for the year due to seasonal weather related shut-ins. World oil supply is now projected to rise by 3.1 mb/d in 2025 to an annual average of 106.3 mb/d – and by another 2.5 mb/d in 2026 to 108.7 mb/d. In a shift from the recent past, this year’s increase is almost evenly divided between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ producers.
Potential substitutes for oil include renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydro power; biofuels derived from plants; hydrogen fuel cells; and nuclear energy. The viability of these alternatives depends on factors such as cost, efficiency, scalability, and environmental impact. Shale oil, also known as tight oil, is crude oil trapped in shale rock formations. Unlike conventional oil, which flows readily through porous rock, shale oil requires hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to release the oil. This process involves injecting high-pressure fluids into the shale rock to create fractures and allow the oil to flow to the wellbore.
However, the exact ranking can vary depending on the source and the methodology used to estimate reserves. Furthermore, the composition of reserves (e.g., heavy crude versus light crude) also impacts their economic value. Estimates of global oil reserves are subject to uncertainty due to factors like data availability, geological complexity, and the use of different estimation methodologies. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) provide estimates based on their respective assessments, but discrepancies often exist. Proven reserves are defined as the quantities of oil and gas that, with reasonable certainty, can be recovered in the future from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions.
- Oil 2025 also explores the implications of surging output of natural gas liquids (NGLs) in an era of petrochemical-driven demand growth.
- While unconventional oil resources are abundant, their extraction is generally more expensive and environmentally intensive than conventional oil production.
- Techniques like hydraulic fracturing (fracking), enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and deepwater drilling allow access to previously unreachable or uneconomical oil reserves.
- Extracted from shale rock formations through hydraulic fracturing (fracking), shale oil has revolutionized the oil industry in the United States.
Why We Haven’t Reached Peak Oil
High oil prices can make unconventional oil resources like oil sands and shale oil economically viable, while low oil prices can make them unprofitable. Oil sands are a mixture of sand, clay, water, and bitumen, a heavy form of crude oil. They are controversial because extracting and processing them is energy-intensive and can have significant environmental impacts, including deforestation and water pollution. It’s unlikely we’ll completely “run out” of oil in the sense of exhausting every drop. The more likely scenario is that oil becomes increasingly expensive to extract, making it less economically competitive with other energy sources.
So depending on who you ask, you how much oil is left in the world may get widely different estimates for fossil fuel reserves. However, everyone seems to agree that we still have at least many decades before these resources run out even with today’s voracious consumption of energy. In order to project how much time we have left before the world runs out of oil, gas, and coal, one method is measuring the R/P ratios — that is the ratio of reserves to current rates of production. The macroeconomic conditions that underpin our oil demand projections deteriorated over the past month as trade tensions escalated between the United States and several other countries.